Poker Math: Every Decision is based on Pot Odds This is a very important lesson and can also be quite intimidating to a lot of people as we are going to discuss Poker Math! But there is no need for you to be intimidated, Poker Maths is very simple and we will show you a very simple method in this lesson. Three of the poker odds needed to call TDs and 158 of the yards went to Mike Alfieri. Players enamored with suited cards would be well advised to read element 32 (Suitedness and Connectedness) where they'll get a realistic view of the true value of suited cards.

1. Poker Odds To Call
2. Poker Odds Calculator
3. Poker Odds Chart
4. Poker Hands Odds Of Winning
5. Basic Poker Odds
6. Poker Percentages And Odds
7. Best Video Poker Odds

This is a very important lesson and can also be quite intimidating to a lot of people as we are going to discuss Poker Math!

But there is no need for you to be intimidated, Poker Maths is very simple and we will show you a very simple method in this lesson.

1. Dec 29, 2008  Pot odds refers to the relationship between the size of the pot and the size of the bet. For example: If there's $10 in the pot and you have to call a $2 bet, then you are getting pot odds of 5-1. If you have to call a $5 bet in the same $10 pot, you're getting pot odds of 2-1.
2. Dec 03, 2014  When facing a bet, pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a call. For example; if you face a $50 bet on the river into a pot of $50, you risk $50 (cost of calling) to win $100 ($50 bet plus the $50 already in the pot).
3. Poker odds needed to call It is your poker odds needed to call own responsibility to determine if gambling online from your current location is legal. Playing casino games involves risk and should be considered a fun, recreational activity, not a way to earn an income.
4. Since the pot odds only require us to win 44% of the time, this is a correct call when only taking pot odds into consideration. In a tournament, there are other important features such as fold equity and getting knocked and independent chip modeling that you need to take into account, but this article is a general primer on how to analyze the.

You won’t need to carry a calculator around with you or perform any complex mathematical calculations.

What is Poker Math?

As daunting as it sounds, it is simply a tool that we use during the decision making process to calculate the Pot Odds in Poker and the chances of us winning the pot.

Remember, Poker is not based on pure luck, it is a game of probabilities, there are a certain number of cards in the deck and a certain probability that outcomes will occur. So we can use this in our decision making process.

Every time we make a decision in Poker it is a mathematical gamble, what we have to make sure is that we only take the gamble when the odds are on in our favour. As long as we do this, in the long term we will always come out on top.

When to Use Poker Maths

Poker Maths is mainly used when we need to hit a card in order to make our hand into a winning hand, and we have to decide whether it is worth carrying on and chasing that card.

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To make this decision we consider two elements:

1. How many “Outs” we have (Cards that will make us a winning hand) and how likely it is that an Out will be dealt.
2. What are our “Pot Odds” – How much money will we win in return for us taking the gamble that our Out will be dealt

We then compare the likelihood of us hitting one of our Outs against the Pot Odds we are getting for our bet and see if mathematically it is a good bet.

The best way to understand and explain this is by using a hand walk through, looking at each element individually first, then we’ll bring it all together in order to make a decision on whether we should call the bet.

Consider the following situation where you hold A 8 in the big blind. Before the flop everyone folds round to the small blind who calls the extra 5c, to make the Total pot before the Flop 20c (2 players x 10c). The flop comes down K 9 4 and your opponent bets 10c. Let’s use Poker Math to make the decision on whether to call or not.

Poker Outs

When we are counting the number of “Outs” we have, we are looking at how many cards still remain in the deck that could come on the turn or river which we think will make our hand into the winning hand.

In our example hand you have a flush draw needing only one more Club to make the Nut Flush (highest possible). You also hold an overcard, meaning that if you pair your Ace then you would beat anyone who has already hit a single pair on the flop.

From the looks of that flop we can confidently assume that if you complete your Flush or Pair your Ace then you will hold the leading hand. So how many cards are left in the deck that can turn our hand into the leading hand?

• Flush – There are a total of 13 clubs in the deck, of which we can see 4 clubs already (2 in our hand and 2 on the flop) that means there are a further 9 club cards that we cannot see, so we have 9 Outs here.
• Ace Pair – There are 4 Ace’s in the deck of which we are holding one in our hand, so that leaves a further 3 Aces that we haven’t seen yet, so this creates a further 3 Outs.

So we have 9 outs that will give us a flush and a further 3 outs that will give us Top Pair, so we have a total of 12 outs that we think will give us the winning hand.

So what is the likelihood of one of those 12 outs coming on the Turn or River?

Professor’s Rule of 4 and 2

An easy and quick way to calculate this is by using the Professor’s rule of 4 and 2. This way we can forget about complex calculations and quickly calculate the probability of hitting one of our outs.

The Professor’s Rule of 4 and 2

• After the Flop (2 cards still to come… Turn + River)
  Probability we will hit our Outs = Number of Outs x 4
• After the Turn (1 card to come. River)
  Probability we will hit our Outs – Number of Outs x 2

So after the flop we have 12 outs which using the Rule of 4 and 2 we can calculate very quickly that the probability of hitting one of our outs is 12 x 4 = 48%. The exact % actually works out to 46.7%, but the rule of 4 and 2 gives us a close enough answer for the purposes we need it for.

If we don’t hit one of our Outs on the Turn then with only the River left to come the probability that we will hit one of our 12 Outs drops to 12 x 2 = 24% (again the exact % works out at 27.3%)

To compare this to the exact percentages lets take a look at our poker outs chart:

As you can see the Rule of 4 and 2 does not give us the exact %, but it is pretty close and a nice quick and easy way to do the math in your head.

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Now lets summarise what we have calculated so far:

• We estimate that to win the hand you have 12 Outs
• We have calculated that after the flop with 2 cards still to come there is approximately a 48% chance you will hit one of your outs.

Now we know the Odds of us winning, we need to look at the return we will get for our gamble, or in other words the Pot Odds.

Pot Odds

When we calculate the Pot Odds we are simply looking to see how much money we will win in return for our bet. Again it’s a very simple calculation…

Pot Odds Formula

Pot Odds = Total Pot divided by the Bet I would have to call

What are the pot odds after the flop with our opponent having bet 10c?

• Total Pot = 20c + 10c bet = 30 cents
• Total Bet I would have to make = 10 cents
• Therefore the pot odds are 30 cents divided by 10 cents or 3 to 1.

What does this mean? It means that in order to break even we would need to win once for every 3 times we lose. The amount we would win would be the Total Pot + the bet we make = 30 cents + 10 cents = 40 cents.

Break Even Percentage

Now that we have worked out the Pot Odds we need to convert this into a Break Even Percentage so that we can use it to make our decision. Again it’s another simple calculation that you can do in your head.

Break Even Percentage

Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by (Pot odds added together)

Let me explain a bit further. Pot Odds added together means replace the “to” with a plus sign eg: 3 to 1 becomes 3+1 = 4. So in the example above our pot odds are 3 to 1 so our Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by 4 = 25%

Note – This only works if you express your pot odds against a factor of 1 eg: “3 to 1” or “5 to 1” etc. It will not work if you express the pot odds as any other factor eg: 3 to 2 etc.

So… Should You call?

So lets bring the two elements together in our example hand and see how we can use the new poker math techniques you have learned to arrive at a decision of whether to continue in the hand or whether to fold.

To do this we compare the percentage probability that we are going to hit one of our Outs and win the hand, with the Break Even Percentage.

Should I Call?

• Call if…… Probability of Hitting an Out is greater than Pot Odds Break Even Percentage
• Fold if…… Probability of Hitting an Out is less than Pot Odds Break Even Percentage

Our calculations above were as follows:

• Probability of Hitting an Out = 48%
• Break Even Percentage = 25%

If our Probability of hitting an out is higher than the Break Even percentage then this represents a good bet – the odds are in our favour. Why? Because what we are saying above is that we are going to get the winning hand 48% of the time, yet in order to break even we only need to hit the winning hand 25% of the time, so over the long run making this bet will be profitable because we will win the hand more times that we need to in order to just break even.

Hand Walk Through #2

Lets look at another hand example to see poker mathematics in action again.

Before the Flop:

• Blinds: 5 cents / 10 cents
• Your Position: Big Blind
• Your Hand: K 10
• Before Flop Action: Everyone folds to the dealer who calls and the small blind calls, you check.

Two people have called and per the Starting hand chart you should just check here, so the Total Pot before the flop = 30 cents.

Flop comes down Q J 6 and the Dealer bets 10c, the small blind folds.

Do we call? Lets go through the thought process:

How has the Flop helped my hand?
It hasn’t but we do have some draws as we have an open ended straight draw (any Ace or 9 will give us a straight) We also have an overcard with the King.

How has the Flop helped my opponent?
The Dealer did not raise before the flop so it is unlikely he is holding a really strong hand. He may have limped in with high cards or suited connectors. At this stage our best guess is to assume that he has hit top pair and holds a pair of Queens. It’s possible that he hit 2 pair with Q J or he holds a small pair like 6’s and now has a set, but we come to the conclusion that this is unlikely.

How many Outs do we have?
So we conclude that we are facing top pair, in which case we need to hit our straight or a King to make top pair to hold the winning hand.

• Open Ended Straight Draw = 8 Outs (4 Aces and 4 Nines)
• King Top Pair = 3 Outs (4 Kings less the King in our hand)
• Total Outs = 11 Probability of Winning = 11 x 4 = 44%

Poker Odds To Call

What are the Pot Odds?
Total Pot is now 40 cents and we are asked to call 10 cents so our Pot odds are 4 to 1 and our break even % = 100% divided by 5 = 20%.

Decision
So now we have quickly run the numbers it is clear that this is a good bet for us (44% vs 20%), and we make the call – Total Pot now equals 50 cents.

Turn Card

Turn Card = 3 and our opponent makes a bet of 25 cents.

After the Turn Card
This card has not helped us and it is unlikely that it has helped our opponent, so at this point we still estimate that our opponent is still in the lead with top pair.

Outs
We still need to hit one of our 11 Outs and now with only the River card to come our Probability of Winning has reduced and is now = 11 x 2 = 22%

Pot Odds
The Total Pot is now 75 cents and our Pot odds are 75 divided by 25 = 3 to 1. This makes our Break Even percentage = 100% divided by 4 = 25%

Decision
So now we have the situation where our probability of winning is less than the break even percentage and so at this point we would fold, even though it is a close call.

Summary

Well that was a very heavy lesson, but I hope you can see how Poker Maths doesn’t have to be intimidating, and really they are just some simple calculations that you can do in your head. The numbers never lie, and you can use them to make decisions very easy in Poker.

You’ve learnt some important new skills and it’s time to practise them and get back to the tables with the next stage of the Poker Bankroll Challenge.

Poker Bankroll Challenge: Stage 3

• Stakes: $0.02/$0.04
• Buy In: $3 (75 x BB)
• Starting Bankroll: $34
• Target: $9 (3 x Buy In)
• Finishing Bankroll: $43
• Estimated Sessions: 3

Use this exercise to start to consider your Outs and Pot Odds in your decision making process, and add this tool to the other tools you have already put into practice such as the starting hands chart.

Suited Connectors and Small Pairs Need High Implied Odds To Be Played Profitably.
The Rule Of 5 and 10 Makes Playing These Hands Simple!

Playing high 'implied odds' hands such as suited connectors and small pairs pre-flop can be very profitable in poker. Yet so many players get the play of these hands wrong and end up losing more chips than they win. This article provides an introduction to the best way to play these speculative, yet protentially very profitable hands by introducing the ‘Rule of 5 and 10’ to your poker game.

I start with an explanation of why suited connectors and small pairs are great hands pre-flop and the circumstances required to play these. Implied-odds concepts are introduced as part of this. I'll then describe the rule of 5 and 10 and show how this can help with your decisions. Finally, other factors such as position and player tendencies are introduced into the thinking process.

New Player's Intro - What Are Suited Connectors?

Suited Connectors are hands which are both the same suit and next to each other in rank, for example 4 and 5 of clubs or 9 and 10 of hearts. These hands have the ability to hit straights in 2 directions (2-3 or 3-4 suitedwould limit your chance of hitting so many lower straights), and can also make flushes. The reason that suited connectors are powerful is that your opponents will often find it hard to 'put you on a hand' - for example when the flop comes 6-7-10 it looks pretty 'safe' for someone holding a pair of queens.. it could cost someone a lot of chips before they figure out that they are beaten.

Another advantage of playing these hands is that you can set up a lot of profitable semi-bluffing situations. For example if you hold 6-7 hearts and the board comes Q-4-5 with two hearts you do not (yet) have a made hand. However the chances of aggressive betting leading your opponents to fold, combined with the large number of 'outs' you could hit if you are called make this a profitable spot over time.

Gaps: Suited Connectors can have gaps, for example 7-9 of spades would be a 'one-gapper' while '7-10' would be a two-gapper. These require you to hit specific cards on the flop more often to be playable, and are not so powerful as their connected equivalents. I recommend new players build some experience playing the connected and suited versions of these hands before mixing in some gaps and unsuited but connected cards - these are trickier to play after the flop.

Discipline: The biggest risk with new players and these speculative hands involves going too far with them when they partially hit the flop. A great example would be playing 8-9 suited and hitting a 9-J-A flop 3 suits). Some newer players might get stubborn and call bets here with their pair of 9's. While there are occasions this hand is good, when the pot gets big this will not be very often. If you find it hard to fold weak hands after the flop then I recommend working on this part of your game before you introduce suited connectors into your starting hand range.

Small Pairs In Poker - The (Well) Hidden Benefits!

The reason that suited connectors are good poker starting hands is that, for a small bet, they can hit a well-hidden ‘monster’ on the flop – one which can enable you to take the whole stack of an opponent with an over-pair such as kings. Sure, you will miss the flop and fold most of the time – but this is more than made up for by those times you hit a straight or small flush.

Small pairs play in a similar way. For every 8 times you miss the flop, once you will hit trips and stand to gain a big payoff. Of course the advantage with a pair is that a bet on the flop might win the pot those times when you miss – assuming your opponent has also missed. There are a couple of points to consider when deciding how aggressively to play your flopped set, including who had the betting lead before the flop, how aggressive your opponent(s) are, and whether the flop looks like it would hit a lot of the hands people usually play in Texas Holdem. If you hit your set of 7's on a flop of 7-Q-A then there is a much better chance of an opponent having something to pay you off with than with that same set on a flop of 2-7-Q.

Once again, if you miss then your default should be to check and fold on the flop when there is betting action ahead. Once you gain experience in hand reading and making moves ('floating') then you will find situations where your small pair is playable after the flop. Until that time you should avoid paying opponents off those times you are behind.

Poker Odds Calculator

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Implied Odds - The Concept At The Heart Of Playing Speculative Hands

Poker is a game of betting, if you take risks where you have a positive expectation (you'll win more than you lose) over time, then you will end up with the money. There are many different kinds of odds in poker - the important one here is 'implied odds' which describes the chips you can win on future betting rounds compared to the cost to play the hand now.

Here is a simple example to explain the concept. You and your opponent each have 100 chips, and your opponent will always go all-in on the flop whatever his hand. It costs you 1 chip to play - so you could play pretty much any hand pre-flop here, since those times you hit a strong hand you will win 99 more, your implied odds are 99-to-1. if you miss, then you can fold and wait for the next hand. Your implied odds are so huge, that you could play just about anything and still have a postive expectation over time.

In real games things are not that simple. Opponents will fold sometimes, you will miss your hand most of the time and everyone can have different sized chip stacks.

This means that you need to be able to calculate your implied odds on a situation-by-situation basis, and play your suited connectors, small pairs or suited aces only when you have the potential to win enough chips to cover those times when your hand misses and you end up folding. There are 3 things you need to take into account when making this decision:

- How many chips does it cost to play and how many chips could you reasonably hope to win when you hit?

- How often do you expect to hit your hand?

- How often will you hit your hand and win only a few chips, or end up losing a big pot (for example when your set loses to a flush or higher set)?

Here is an example of the basic thought process - below I will introduce a handy 'rule' you can use to judge these situations:

You start with a pair of 3's and see a small raise ahead of you. Your pair has 8-to-1 odds of becoming a set on the flop, so this is the minimum 'implied odds' you need to call. The bet is $2 and you see that your opponent has $17 remaining in his stack and you have more. Since you could win more than 8 times your bet, you might think this is a profitable call - not so fast though. While the chips are available you will not win them every time, your opponent may be raising 'light' and will fold on the flop when you bet, and a very small percentage of the time you will hit your set of 3's and lose the pot anyway to a better hand. You would need your opponent to have a minimum of $25+ to profitably call with a pair here, to make up for those times you do not get paid. This is 12-to-1, and should be a minimum requirement. If you hold suited connectors or a suited ace then even bigger implied odds are required - I like to have at least 20-to-1 for the more speculative hands.

One last point, you should not generally add together the chips of 2 or more opponents when calculating your implied odds. Sometimes you will enjoy stacking two opponents at the same time, however this will not happen very often at all!

Suited Connectors And Small Pairs Pre-Flop - The Rule Of 5 and 10

The ‘Rule of 5 and 10’ is a great way to ensure that you have the correct implied odds to play these hands without having the complication of working out the math each time - this is very simple to implement. The idea is this:

Poker Odds Chart

• If the raise (or call) pre-flop is less than 5% of your stack then you should usually play.
• If the raise pre flop is more than 10% of your stack you should usually fold.
• If the raise is in-between these amounts then use your judgment!

Poker Hands Odds Of Winning

This rule makes perfect sense in terms of the implied odds – with 5% or less you have the potential to make 20 times your initial investment when you hit hard. With 10% you can only make 10x (and since you will not always get an opponent’s entire stack this includes a margin of safety).

The ‘judgment’ in between should take into account a few factors. Firstly your position at the table. If there are still several players left to act, any of whom might raise, then you would be less inclined to play than if you were in late position. If the pre-flop raiser is wild and unlikely to fold after the flop you would be more inclined to play (since you are more certain of getting paid-off the times that you do hit).

Basic Poker Odds

Planet Mark's Rec: Your best chance of getting paid off with a big pot when you hit a hidden monster with those small pairs or connectors is to play against loose 'gambler' type opponents. This is why I recommend networks which include some of the big sports-betting brands among their members. The iPoker Network contains the loosest players of all - and Titan Poker (the biggest site there) are a hugely profitable place for experienced players. You can claim $20 free cash + a 200% deposit match with bonus code SNGPLANET (min deposit $20, I'll get the cash into your account within 48 hours!). Click now to check out those soft Titan Poker tables for yourself!!

Suited Connectors And Small Pairs Pre-Flop - Player-Specific Factors

Your own table image can also factor in deciding whether you can profitably play suited connectors and small pairs. If you have a ‘loose’ image yourself you are more likely to get paid-off. That is your implied odds with suited connectors and small pairs are higher because your opponents are less likely to believe you have a hand. If you are ultra-tight then the opposite may well be true, someone who folds 20 hands in a row is unlikely to win a big pot against observant opponents if they suddenly wake up and start betting.

Poker Percentages And Odds

To summarize, suited connectors and small pairs are great hands pre-flop when the stacks are deep in relation to the blinds and antes. This is due to the implied-odds – the extra bets you will win those times you hit a big hand. The ‘rule of 5 and 10’ is a simple way of ensuring that you have the implied odds to play. Judgment based on position and player tendencies will further assist in making sure your play is profitable.

Remember, finding loose opponents will help you win HUGE pots those times your suited connectors or small pairs flop a hidden monster. Titan Poker are the softest site anywhere online - and offer fantastic rewards to their loyal players too. You can claim $20 in free cash on top of your 200% deposit bonus with Titan Poker Bonus Code SNGPLANET (min $20 deposit, I'll get the cash paid into your account within 48 hours). Check out those soft tables at Titan Poker for yourself now!

Best Video Poker Odds

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